The budget allocation model
Cohort pLTV
- Weekly
- Per cohort
- Graded on the total
Churney makes sure your ad platforms know it too, from Day 1.
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The problem
Meta, Google and TikTok optimize toward whatever your conversion event tells them. If that event fires before customers show their value, the platform learns the wrong lesson.
The window
Most of your customer value arrives after that: repeat orders, renewals, upgrades.
The proxy
Installs, trial starts and first orders fire inside the window, so that is what bidding learns from.
The cost
You see it in cohort reports a quarter later, after the platform has already scaled the wrong audience.
Two models, never one
A cohort forecast is graded on the total, so it averages customers out. A bidding signal is graded on telling them apart.
"Churney helped us scale our campaigns without sacrificing efficiency. By focusing on predicted long-term value instead of early conversions, we doubled new customer volume and improved ROAS by 190%. It’s now a core part of how we run performance marketing."
"Working with Churney allowed us to test a smarter approach to campaign optimization, one that focuses on users’ long-term value rather than just early conversions. It’s an exciting direction for improving efficiency and user quality in performance marketing."
"Many companies promise improved ROAS, but Churney actually moves the bottom line. We saw immediate improvements in efficiency that allowed us to scale without second-guessing."
"When we evaluated Churney, we focused on three criteria: Could they construct a predictive signal with appropriate calibration? Could they integrate it reliably into our data pipeline? And could they measure the outcome without bias? They delivered on all three."
"Churney helped us move past short-term signals and tap into our users' real long-term value."
"Implementing Churney’s predictive LTV model has been a game-changer for our user acquisition strategy. By identifying high-potential subscribers early, we’ve not only increased the lifetime value of our customers but also significantly improved retention rates and overall campaign performance."
"Churney has improved our advertising efficiency. By optimizing for predicted long-term value, we increased ROAS by 33% while gaining scale. The impact was so clear that we’ve now rolled out Churney’s conversion action across our Google account. Beyond that, Churney has enabled us to launch and scale new product categories that we couldn’t advertise before. It’s transformed the way we approach growth."
“The key to success is to identify potential high-value customers swiftly and channel marketing budgets towards acquiring them. Our partnership with Churney was crucial in fueling Meta’s machine-learning algorithm with pLTV values.”
"The most meaningful day-to-day change so far is that I'm checking the split a bit more closely than usual in order to learn as much as possible about the signal, for example when it leaves the learning period, when it will show the first good ROAS signals."
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