The challenge

Short-Term ROAS ≠ Long-Term Value

Like many ecommerce brands, Underoutfit was optimizing prospecting campaigns based on short-term performance windows, typically 7 to 14 days. This made it difficult to justify spend on top-of-funnel campaigns and limited their ability to advertise less immediately profitable products.

Without visibility into which new customers would become repeat buyers, Underoutfit’s team couldn’t confidently scale their prospecting efforts.

The solution

Predicting Future Revenue, Today

Underoutfit partnered with Churney to introduce predictive lifetime value (pLTV) modeling into their Google Ads setup. Using first-party ecommerce and behavioral data, Churney trained a model to predict each new customer’s Day 94 revenue within 24 hours of their first purchase.

These predictions were then fed into Google Ads as conversion value signals, allowing campaign optimization to shift from short-term purchases to long-term revenue potential.

The test focused specifically on prospecting campaigns targeting net new customers in the U.S. market which were previously most difficult to scale profitably.

The results

Prospecting Breakthrough → Expansion Everywhere

By switching to Churney’s pLTV-based optimization:

• Underoutfit saw a 33% lift in Day 94 ROAS
• Prospecting campaigns became sustainably profitable
• The success unlocked expansion into remarketing and 3 previously unprofitable product categories

Profitably acquiring new customers didn’t just improve ROAS, it transformed Underoutfit’s approach to paid acquisition. The success of the experiment led Underoutfit to double down on Churney’s models, not only for prospecting but for remarketing, category expansion, and smarter forecasting overall.