pLTV for subscription acquisition · Freeletics

Freeletics, your best athletes don’t look special at subscription start.

What if you could bid for subscribers by predicted renewal value, not just whether they took the 50% intro offer? You’ve got gold in your KYC data. Use it intelligently for customer acquisition.

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Rewinding your onboarding… KYC permutations 1 Generic subscribe event sent to Meta 1

Subscription teams use Churney to bid beyond subscription start proxies and early conversion events.

+45% incremental Day 30 ROAS

+32% incremental paid subs −19% cost per incremental customer

The problem

Learning stops too early. Intro subscribers and your best renewers look the same to your ad platform.

Freeletics subscribers pay after a 12-step onboarding quiz. Meta and Google still learn only from what fires inside their optimization window: installs, onboarding complete, intro-price subscribe or even standard subscribe events.

The value that decides payback shows up at list-price renewal, weeks later. By then, the network has already optimized toward the cheapest converts.

See how Churney solves it

Each dot is an event sent to Meta, Google, or TikTok. Most events are sent way after the ad network stopped learning and optimizing to acquire more of any of the two user types.

The cost

Your campaigns are forced into a tradeoff between event quality and event volume. You pay for it in one of two ways.

Path A, Scaling ceiling

You optimize only for paid subscriptions. The signal is close to revenue but far too sparse. Most businesses never send enough events to exit learning phase. Campaigns stall. You can't scale.

Path B, Quality floor

You teach ad networks on intro or subscription starts. That might give the network enough volume, but every event is worth the same. It learns to find the cheapest intro subscribers, not the subscribers who pay and stay.

Either way, the platform learns from events that fire inside a short optimization window, long before real subscriber value appears.

What the network learns

Same campaign optimization. Different learning depth.

Ad network learning	What Meta learns today	With Churney pLTV
Onboarding / paywall views	0	0
First subscribe	0	0
Intro subscribe	0	0
predicted renewal	0	0
predicted 2nd renewal	0	0
predicted churn	0	0

The solution

Churney gives the platform a signal closer to the subscriber outcome Freeletics actually cares about.

We predict each new user's long-term subscriber value from your first-party data, then send platform-ready pLTV signals to Google, Meta, and TikTok.

At zero risk

01 Same campaigns. Same platforms.

No new tool for your team to run day to day. You keep buying media in Google Ads, Meta, and TikTok the way you do today; Churney connects to your data and sends pLTV signals into the optimization you already use.

02 Free Growth Predictability Test

We analyze your first-party customer and revenue data to see whether pLTV is a fit, and whether predicted subscriber value matches how your business actually earns paid conversion and renewal revenue. Start here before you change bidding or sign for a pilot.

03 Three-month pilot, then decide

Run a structured test against your current setup (Churney pLTV vs. business as usual), with enough time for intro-to-renew cohorts to mature (typically 90-120 days). No long-term commitment until you have seen how acquisition performs with the new signal.

Success

What subscription teams say after bidding beyond trial-start proxies.

+45%incremental Day 30 ROAS

"Churney helped us optimize for long-term subscriber value, not just early trial events. We improved Day 30 ROAS while scaling paid acquisition."

+32%incremental paid subs · -19% cost per incremental customer

"By optimizing for predicted long-term value, we acquired more valuable subscribers at lower incremental cost."

FAQ

Questions fitness subscription teams usually ask.

We don't offer a trial. We optimize on subscribe. Isn't that enough?

Subscribe is still a short-window proxy when intro pricing, plan tenure (3 vs 12 months), and nutrition bundle flatten economics. Two athletes can subscribe on the same day for €64.99 intro; one renews at €129.99, one churns. Without value ranking, the platform treats them as identical.

We already use onboarding complete or paywall view as a proxy.

Onboarding complete gives volume, not renewal quality. Freeletics collects 12 steps of rich data; a single funnel proxy throws most of it away. pLTV models expected convert-and-retain value from behavioral and revenue history, not a fixed rule.

Doesn't 50% off help conversion? Why is that a problem for learning?

It helps short-term CPA. It also trains networks to find price-sensitive users who convert on urgency (countdown paywall) but not on list-price LTV. Churney can separate intro buyers predicted to renew from those predicted to churn at cliff.

How is this different from CleverTap and our retention dashboards?

CleverTap and cohort reports explain who was valuable. They do not teach Meta who to acquire next. Churney activates pLTV as a live optimization signal via CAPI and Google EC.

Does this work for mobile apps without trials?

Yes. Churney fits subscription apps where paid conversion, renewal at list price, and retention change subscriber value, and UA is held back because platforms only see early proxy events. If your best athletes only show true value after the second billing cycle, you are in the zone.

Next step

Find out how Freeletics' first-party data can improve subscription acquisition bidding.

Bring your subscribe events, intro-offer mix, and onboarding stack. We will map whether pLTV activation is worth testing.

Option 1

Book a call

Talk through your acquisition setup, intro-offer signals, and whether pLTV activation is worth testing.

Data readinessPlatform fitNext test path

Option 2

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Share the basics and Churney can follow up with the most relevant pLTV fit check.

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