pLTV for ecommerce acquisition
Churney predicts each shopper’s long term value early, and sends it to Meta and Google - so you bid for the buyers who pay off.
+33% incremental Day 94 ROAS
The problem
The difference shows up later in repeat orders, upsells, and renewals. By then, the learning window has already made budget decisions.
Churney turns the receipt into a predicted value signal early enough for acquisition to learn from it.
The cost
Short-window bidding overvalues buyers who convert once and undervalues buyers whose real value appears after Day 30, Day 60, Day 90 or even later.
That means whether ROAS is on target or not, you're also subsidizing customers who never earn back their CAC.
The solution
We predict each new buyer’s long-term value from your first-party data, then send platform-ready pLTV signals to Google and Meta.
Behavioral data, first-party customer data, zero-party inputs, and purchase information become the input layer for pLTV activation.
The model turns early events into a calibrated pLTV signal that can be refreshed and activated before long-term value fully matures.
Google Ads
Meta
Google Ads
Meta
Google and Meta can optimize toward predicted future value instead of over-learning from whichever buyers look best on Day 1.
Success
"Churney has improved our advertising efficiency. By optimizing for predicted long-term value, we increased ROAS by 33% while gaining scale."
Felix LeshnoCo-Founder, Underoutfit
"Many companies promise improved ROAS, but Churney actually moves the bottom line. We saw immediate improvements in efficiency that allowed us to scale without second-guessing."
Roi YosefCTO, Los Angeles Apparel
FAQ
That optimizes on first-order revenue at checkout. For DTC, real profit often shows up in repeat purchases, bundles, and margin weeks later. Churney predicts per-customer pLTV from your first-party data and sends that as the bid signal, so you’re not just scaling high-AOV one-and-done buyers.
Cohort reports explain who was valuable. They don’t teach your ad platforms who to acquire next. Churney activates pLTV as a live optimization signal so bidding learns from predicted 2nd+ order and long-window value, not only the first conversion.
Ad platforms learn on first purchase; your best customers often reorder within 30–90 days (consumables, beauty, pet, supplements, etc.). If early spend (days 1–7) doesn’t rank the same as late value (day 90+), tROAS on first order misallocates budget toward one-time buyers. Churney targets customers who will buy again, not just convert once.
Structured pilot: Churney signal vs. your business-as-usual setup (e.g. purchase or first-order value optimization), with holdouts and cohort readout when repeat orders mature, not just a higher tROAS target in the ad account.
Churney fits brands where repeat purchases matter and paid acquisition is held back because ad platforms only see first-order value. Quick test: If your best customers only show their true value weeks after the first purchase, you’re in the zone. If first-order ROAS already tells the full story, standard value bidding may be enough for you. You can test your growth predictability here: https://gpt.churney.io/
Onboarding aside, usually 60–120 days from campaign launch, because ecommerce value often appears on 2nd+ orders, not at first purchase. You’re comparing Churney vs. your current setup over a window long enough for repeat orders to mature, not judging it on week-one ROAS. We say again - Risk Free: Unlock double-digit ROAS growth, or you keep your money.
We prove it with a structured test against what you run today. Lift = new customers acquired with Churney’s pLTV signal perform better on long-term value (repeat orders, margin, LTV) than customers acquired under your current optimization; after the test window is long enough for repeats to show up.
The aim is better customers, not fewer. You keep scaling acquisition while the bid model favors shoppers predicted to come back and spend more over 90 days. Success looks like steady or growing new-customer volume with stronger repeat rates, higher cohort LTV, and ROAS that holds up once 2nd orders land. Not a tradeoff where you shrink the top of the funnel to look efficient on day one.
Next step
Choose the path that fits how ready you are. Book time with Churney, or leave the key details and we will come back with the next best step.
Talk through your acquisition setup, Day 1 signals, and whether pLTV activation is worth testing.
Pick a slot directly in the calendar below. Bring your acquisition setup, Day 1 signals, and testing questions.